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Analysis of GBP/USD on January 15. The pound is also ready to complete the construction of an upward wave.


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For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look quite convincing and is becoming more and more structured. In the last few weeks, the instrument has continued to build an upward wave, which is currently interpreted as wave D of the downward trend segment. If the current wave marking is correct, then the decline in quotes will resume after the completion of this wave, which could already happen on Friday. Thus, the entire downward section of the trend may take on an even more extended form. However, if wave D takes a five-wave form, then it will need to be recognized as an impulse, and in this case, it will no longer be able to be a corrective wave D, and the entire wave pattern will require additions. At the moment, only three waves are visible inside it, which can be a-b-c series. However, a successful attempt to break through the 1.3644 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci, will indicate the readiness of the markets to sell the British.

Let’s move away from politics. The Fed has a delicate job to do with PEPP.

The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument decreased by 30 basis points during January 14. This is very little if we count by the closing and opening levels of the day. However, the dynamics of the instrument decreased by 90 points, which may mean the completion of the construction of the ascending wave D. If the news background was of average strength for the euro/dollar instrument, then the pound/dollar instrument was strong. In addition to the American reports, which I mentioned in the article on the euro/dollar, quite interesting publications have also been published in the UK. I should mention the GDP report for November, which grew by 0.9% m/m, as well as the report on industrial production, which grew by 1.0% m/m. In both cases, market expectations were lower. Nevertheless, the pound was only thinking about continuing to increase for one hour, and then it crashed down like a stone. The markets did not win back the British statistics and did not pay attention to the American ones. I think this may indicate that the markets are ready to build a new downward wave. The same situation was observed on Friday for the euro/dollar and a downward wave is also expected there. Thus, both instruments can start a long decline. I note that the markets did not want to work out the reports on Friday, but they also do not pay attention to other news. For example, the news about Omicron, which continues to attack both America and the European Union. Also, the markets are not interested in all the scandals with Boris Johnson, unsuccessful negotiations with the European Union on the protocol on the border with Northern Ireland, and a possible referendum on independence in Scotland. Even if these topics are considered separately and at different times, there is still no connection between them and the position of the Briton about the American. I believe that wave analysis is in the first place now

General conclusions.

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument assumes the completion of the construction of the expected wave D in the near future (or has already been completed). Since this wave has not yet taken a five-wave form, I expect that a new descending wave E will be built. And it should begin in the very near future. However, I advise you to expect a sales signal, such as a successful attempt to break through the 1.3644 mark. And only, in this case, start selling the instrument with the first targets located near the 1.3452 and 1.3274 marks.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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EUR/USD analysis on January 14. A sharp decline in the European currency. Is the rising wave complete?

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