The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument has not changed for more than a month. All this time, the horizontal movement continues and at the moment it is not even possible to say for sure whether the construction of the proposed wave d has been completed. The entire wave from November 24 may be both wave d, after which the construction of wave e-C will begin, and the first wave of a new upward trend section, which has taken on a rather complex form. This is exactly the problem of corrective waves or trend sections. They can become more complicated and take almost any form. Even the breakthrough of the last local peak did not lead to clarity on the issue of the proposed wave d. At the moment, I am inclined to think that the construction of a downward trend section will continue – we have been seeing too uncertain an increase in quotes in recent weeks. However, in any case, the proposed wave d may take on an even more extended and complex form.
Important reports have been released in Germany and America.
The euro/dollar instrument moved with an amplitude of about 25 basis points on Thursday. I’m not even talking about the direction of movement right now, because it has been horizontal for more than a month. Thus, inside the day, it does not matter which way the instrument was moving. It still does not affect the wave markup in any way. Today, the news background was abundant but weak for the euro and the dollar. There were a lot of reports, but judging by the amplitude of the movement, the markets did not see anything interesting in them for themselves. Early in the morning, Germany released a report on the volume of orders in the industry, which exceeded market expectations by 1.6% monthly. A little later, a report on German inflation was released, which accelerated to 5.3% y/y in December. In the US, a report on primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits has been released. These figures only slightly exceeded expectations. The ISM business activity index for the US services sector will be released any minute. During the day, the instrument first decreased by 30 basis points, and then increased by the same amount. As you can see, most of the reports were secondary. However, there is no other news right now. The Omicron strain continues to take over Europe and America, and in addition to it, another new strain of Coronavirus was discovered in France, which was given the name “IHU”. It is reported that the new strain has 46 mutations, but doctors still find it difficult to voice its danger to humans. It is only known that several dozen people have already been infected with it in France, and Cameroon is called the homeland of this strain. At the same time, the markets are waiting for the release of the Non-farm Payrolls report in the US, which will take place tomorrow. This is one of the most important reports on the state of the American economy and a reaction to it should follow, but even such an important report may not clarify the wave markup in any way.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending wave C can be completed. However, the internal wave structure of this wave still allows the construction of another downward, internal wave. Thus, I advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.1152 mark, for each MACD signal “down”, until there is a successful attempt to break the peak of wave d. A restrictive order can be placed above the peak of wave d.
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