Relevance up to 11:00 2021-12-31 UTC+00
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday performed a rebound from the retracement level of 38.2% (1.3418). It also reversed in favor of the British currency and rose to the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.3497). The rebound from this level led to a reversal in favor of the US currency and a fall to the lower boundary of the upward corridor. A pullback from this boundary will be in favor of growth in the British currency. A close below it would increase the chances of the pair falling further towards 1.3418 and 1.3319. There has been no news or events in the UK for the last few days or even weeks. Not surprisingly, since most MPs are already on Christmas and New Year holidays. Boris Johnson or Sajid Javid make occasional speeches. However, they only report that the Omicron situation is under control and it is closely monitored by the government. They also say there is no reason to impose lockdown yet.
Meanwhile, in the UK, more than 300,000 people were infected with the coronavirus on Monday. On Tuesday, about 130,000 cases were reported. On Wednesday, 220,000 new cases were recorded in the country. These figures are absolute records, and they continue to rise. But at the same time, the number of patients in hospitals diagnosed with coronavirus is now three times lower than at the height of the previous wave of the delta strain. So, the Omicron strain is indeed much less dangerous to humans, but at the same time dangerous to the economy, as people who are sick cannot work. Meanwhile, the UK just a couple of months ago faced a crisis of staff shortages in many sectors. This was particularly caused by migrants who had previously filled gaps in the areas of road transport, services, and farming. They took jobs that were of little interest to British people. However, now many businesses and enterprises may come to a halt due to labor shortages.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3457). As a result, the growth process now can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% (1.3642). The bearish divergence has been cancelled. However, fixation of the quotations below the level of 50.0% will again work in favor of the dollar and start a new fall towards the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.3274), especially if the hour chart closes under the uptrend corridor.
News calendar for US and UK:
US – Number of initial jobless claims (13-30 UTC).
On Thursday, there will be no important economic events in the UK. One report in the US is unlikely to affect the mood of traders. I believe that the information backdrop today will have no effect on the mood of the traders.
GBP/USD outlook and tips for traders:
I recommend new selling of the pound if there is a close under the uptrend corridor on the hourly chart with targets 1.3418 and 1.3319. Also, you could sell the pair after the rebound from 1.3497 on the same chart. However, I recommend buying if a new pullback occurs from the lower boundary of the corridor. The targets, in this case, are the levels 1.3497 and 1.3576.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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