Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued to remain inside the horizontal channel between the levels of 1.1234 and 1.1355. Basically, every article in the last few weeks starts with this statement. However, what can you do if the pair has indeed been inside the horizontal channel for almost a month and does not make any special attempts to leave it? Today, for example, having not reached the upper border of about 15 points, the pair turned down, which could have entered a new round of the downward movement, but there was an upward reversal in the US session, therefore, it could possibly hit the level of 1.1355 in the coming hours or tomorrow night. If it surpasses this level, then the pair will finally get the opportunity to form a new upward trend. However, given that tomorrow will have a semi-holiday status and many exchanges, banks and markets will be closed due to the celebration of Christmas, it is hardly worth counting on such an important breakthrough and strong movement.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the pair’s movements on Thursday were much worse than the day before. The movement was weak, and the price changed its direction of movement several times during the day. Those macroeconomic reports, the publication of which was scheduled for today in the United States, provoked almost no reaction. Their release times are marked with check marks in the chart above. It is also impossible to note serious changes in these indicators, since they were rather minor. We can only highlight the report on orders for durable goods, which turned out to be stronger than the forecasts. However, this report still did not help the US dollar, as this currency became cheaper in the afternoon. As a result, we can only consider two trading signals on Thursday. The pair has not hit the 1.1290 level – this is Thursday’s low. When the price settled below the level of 1.1305, which lost its relevance by the end of the day, novice traders could open short positions. This signal turned out to be false, as the price quickly returned above the level of 1.1305. This was followed by a buy signal, which turned out to be quite good and allowed beginners to earn about 25 points, which is more than losses on the first trade. Given the low volatility today, one could hardly count on more profits and more trades. Also, both signals could be ignored, since both were formed during the publication of statistics in the United States.
How to trade on Friday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to be in the horizontal channel of 1.1234-1.1355. Since a rebound followed from its lower border, we continue to expect a round of upward movement towards the upper border. If the pair manages to overcome it, it could mean a new upward trend. Otherwise, a new fall to the level of 1.1234 may begin. The key levels on the 5-minute timeframe for December 24 are 1.1262, 1.1290, 1.1348-1.1355, 1.1422. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss – to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. Friday in the European Union and America will be a half-day off, no reports or events are planned.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com