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Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very weakly on Monday. This can be seen on any timeframe. The pair spent the first half of the day nearly in a horizontal movement. Naturally, when the market is flat, it becomes very difficult to trade, and the profit level drops. The situation was aggravated by the fact that no important fundamental or macroeconomic events were scheduled for Monday. That is, during the day, traders had nothing to react to, respectively, there were no factors that would be able to increase volatility. As a result, the bulls tried to push the pair up for some time, but they failed to take the pair above the level of 1.1434 (today’s high). In the afternoon, the bears took up the task and managed to take the pair down by about 40 points, which is also not much. However, in fact, there was no trend movement today.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The movement was also quite weak on the 5-minute timeframe. Unfortunately, when the price goes flat and some level gets in its way, it begins to form a lot of signals around it. That’s about what happened at Monday’s European trading session. The price crossed the level of 1.1422 three times, which at the end of the day we recognized as irrelevant and deleted it. Nevertheless, novice players could get several dozen points of profit from three trading signals that formed around it. However, it was very difficult to do this, since the price passed a very small distance each time after the signal was formed. The first two deals could only be closed at zero. Only the third short position was able to bring profit, when the price went down a bit more than 20 points. However, in general, we recognize today as unsuccessful, since the movements were weak and non-trend. Let’s hope that tomorrow will be more successful.
How to trade on Tuesday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, it is clear that the price has overcome the lower limit of the ascending channel, but yesterday we warned that the pair may not settle below it with a flat movement, but simply “go sideways”. By and large, such a consolidation below cannot be considered a signal, because it is the channel itself that continues to rise, and not the price that settled below it. Actually, after such a breakthrough, there was practically no downward movement. Nevertheless, formally, a downward trend has been formed, and novice players can expect a further fall in the euro/dollar pair. On the 5-minute TF, the pair will start between the levels of 1.1434 and 1.1387. Therefore, overcoming any of them will be a signal. It is possible that the price will also bounce off any of these levels, which will also be a signal to open deals. On Tuesday, a flat is possible again, since there will be no macroeconomic statistics on this day either in America or in the European Union. Consequently, the market will have nothing to react to during the day.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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