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Analysis of Wednesday trades:
The EUR/USD pair tried to show some movement on Wednesday. At the moment of writing, volatility was slightly more than 50 pips. At the same time, the pair was still trading in the sideways range. In other words, we can say that the pair was flat. Notably, Wednesday was the first eventful day in the macroeconomic calendar this week. Thus, the US economy grew by an annualized 2.3% on quarter in the 3 quarter of 2021. The market showed no reaction to either the GDP results or consumer confidence. So, macroeconomic data continues to have no impact on the market.
Meanwhile, the quote moved in one and the same direction on Wednesday, according to the M5 chart. However, the signals the price made could be misinterpreted by the novice. Let’s analyze them. The first buy signal was produced around the low of 1.1262. The pair failed to reach the low. So, we did not see a real pullback because when it occurs, but the price goes down by 5 pips below the level, it is not a pullback. Therefore, this signal could be ignored. The quote then increased by 40 pips, breaking through the level of 1.1305, the Monday high. So, positions could be closed by a Take Profit or manually. In any case, you could yield a 30 pips profit. We’d like to point out once again that the buy signal was subtle.
How to trade EUR/USD on Thursday:
The euro/dollar pair is still trading in the sideways channel of 1.1234 – 1.1355. Since the quote rebounded from its lower limit, we may assume that the pair may rise to its upper limit soon. If the pair breaks though it, an uptrend may start. Otherwise, the quote may go down to the level of 1.1234. The key levels for December 23 on the M5 chart are 1.1227 – 1.1234, 1.1262, 1.1305 (could be adjusted to today’s high), 1.1348-1.1355, and 1.1422. A take-profit order is to be set at a distance of 30-40 pips as usual. A stop-loss order is to be placed at the breakeven point when the quote passes 15 pips in the required direction. On the M5 chart, the target is seen at the nearest level if it is located not too close or too far. If it is located too far, you should take it from there or work according to a Take Profit. The eurozone’s macroeconomic calendar will be empty on Thursday. Durable goods orders, as well as personal income and personal spending, will come out in the United States. However, these reports are unlikely to somehow affect the market.
Major rules of trading:
1) The strength of a signal is calculated by the time it took a signal to form (bounce or break through a level). The less time it takes, the stronger is the signal.
2) If two or more trades are opened near a certain level based on false signals (that did not trigger a Take Profit or a test of the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) Being flat, any pair might form a lot of false signals or non at all. In any case, when seeing the first signs of a flat, trading should be stopped.
4) Trades are opened within the time period between the opening of the European session and the middle of the North American session when all trades should be closed manually.
5) On the M30 chart, trading should be carried out based on signals from the MACD indicator only if there is good volatility or a trend confirmed by a trend line or a channel.
6) If two levels are located close to one another (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered as the area of support or resistance.
Indicators on charts:
Support and resistance are target levels when buying or selling a pair. A Take Profit could be set near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in what direction it is preferable to trade now.
MACD (14, 22, 3) – a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which produces a signal to enter the market. It should be used in combination with trend patterns (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of publication, market players should trade very cautiously or exit the market to avoid a reversal.
Beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. An effective trading strategy and competent money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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