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U.S. Opening Bell: Futures, European Stocks Extend Records; Gold, Oil Advance

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Traders are betting on positive US manufacturing and jobs figures
Cyclicals lead in the US and Europe
Bitcoin continues struggling

Key Events

On Tuesday, futures on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indices as well as stocks in Europe extended the new year rally ahead of key US data releases—manufacturing and new jobs. The rise suggests that traders are betting that the numbers will show that the world’s largest economy is unfazed by the latest, fast-spreading Omicron variant of COVID-19.

The dollar was flat and yields fell slightly.

Global Financial Affairs

All four US futures were green with the S&P 500 and Dow futures slightly in the lead, building on Monday’s new record closes.

The same cyclicals leadership seen in US futures is also evident in Europe today, with airlines, retail, and commodities leading the STOXX 600 index to a back-to-back record. The pan-European benchmark was up 0.6% at the time of writing, and hit an all-time high on an intraday basis as well.

In London, the FTSE 100 opened more than a full percentage point higher to a near-two-year peak, also boosted by airlines. IAG (LON:ICAG), the owner of British Airways, opened 7.9% higher and extended gains to 9.9%

Excluding China, all Asian benchmarks were in positive territory. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 1.8% on the country’s first trading day of the year whereas China’s Shanghai Composite slid 0.2% as real estate developer Evergrande (HK:3333) was back in the headlines.

The company was ordered to demolish a resort in the southern province of Hainan. Shares of Evergrande were suspended yesterday during Hong Kong trading, however, the stock was back in play today and gained 1.9%. Increased regulations surrounding China’s real estate industry induced fears of potential defaults and a financial crisis so it’s ironic that the perpetrator rallies while the broader market stumbles.

In the US on Monday, shares started the year on an optimistic note, with both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones notching fresh records. However, it’s essential to keep in mind that trading volume is still light and we cannot bank on these moves as trendsetting. As well, though 2021 was stellar and 2022 started strong, an array of risks still linger.

While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones set records, the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 gained almost twice as much. The former closed 0.4% below its Dec. 27 record, while the small cap index remained 7.5% below its highest close, offering investors the most value of the indices.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note retreated. Any concerns on economic growth may curb a rise in yields.

The dollar was little changed.

Dollar Index Daily

Our ascending or symmetrical triangles have turned into a rectangle, signifying that anything goes. Still, there is a strong chance the breakout would resume the underlying trend. Since the sideways pattern emerged within an uptrend, it’s more likely than not that the escape will be topside, but it requires an actual breakout to officially call it a resumption.

Gold rallied.

Gold Daily

The yellow metal found support by the 200 DMA so now there is a natural neckline to a possible Rounding Bottom. The outlook for prices remains mixed.

Bitcoin continues to struggle as it tries to push back above $50,000.

Bitcoin Daily

The cryptocurrency remains below the 200 DMA, the natural neckline for a massive H&S that could be the right shoulder of an even larger double top.

Oil rose for a second day, ahead of the first OPEC+ meeting of the year today, where the cartel and its cohorts will talk about output levels.

Oil Daily

The rise is at the top of a bearish wedge, a potential right shoulder of an H&S top.

Up Ahead

FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
ADP Nonfarm employment change figures are announced on Wednesday.
Crude oil inventories are published on Wednesday as well.

Market Moves

Stocks

The FTSE 100 increased 1.4%
The STOXX 600 rose 0.5%
Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2%
Futures on the NASDAQ 100 rose 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.2%

Currencies

The British pound rose 0.12% at $1.3486
The Dollar Index added less than 0.1%
The euro was little changed at $1.1292
The Japanese yen rose 0.57% to 115.97 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.3776 per dollar

Bonds

Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 1.03%
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 1.63%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to -0.14%

Commodities

WTI crude rose 0.5% to $76.455 a barrel
Brent crude rose 0.9% to $79.66 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.14% to $1,804.05 an ounce

Bitcoin could reach $ 100,000 in 2022

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